Sector Rotation · Planck Trading

Where money is rotating across US sectors and industries: which groups are gaining or losing ground against the rest of the market, measured from daily prices and trading volume. A description of what is happening, not a forecast.

Rotation map

Each sector moves clockwise through four phases: Improving (top-left) → Leading (top-right) → Weakening (bottom-right) → Lagging (bottom-left). One point every 5 trading days, 8-point trail; the large dot is today.

Relative strength (RS). Each sector's equal-weight index of its stocks divided by the equal-weight index of all stocks. It rises when the sector does better than the market and falls when it does worse.

RS-ratio (x-axis) = 100 × the 15-day average of RS ÷ the 40-day average of RS (exponential averages of daily values). Above 100: the sector is stronger than its own recent trend against the market; below 100: weaker.

RS-momentum (y-axis) = 100 + 3 × the change in RS-ratio over the last 5 trading days. Above 100: RS-ratio rose over those 5 days; below 100: it fell. Momentum can climb back toward 100 while RS-ratio is still falling - the fall is slowing, which is how a sector turns from Weakening toward Improving.

Sector table. Rel 1m / Rel 3m = the sector's return over the last 21 / 63 trading days relative to the equal-weight market. Money flow = 20-day volume-weighted position of each day's close within its high-low range (+100% = every close at the high, −100% = at the low); MF z = that reading against the sector's own past year. Participation = the sector's share of all dollar volume over 20 days ÷ its 1-year average (above 1 = more trading than usual). Click a column header to sort.

Industry rotation: 48 Fama-French industries (survivor-free top 3,000)

What is happening: industry rotation

Descriptive only, no forecast. Every industry's return relative to the equal-weight average of all industries over the chosen window. Click an industry (here or in the ranking table) to highlight it.

All industries: return relative to the industry average

Relative return (over the window). Each day, an industry's return is the equal-weight average of its member stocks; the benchmark is the equal-weight average of all industries that day. Relative return compounds the difference over the window: (1 + industry return) ÷ (1 + benchmark return), multiplied day by day, minus 1. +10% means the industry gained 10% more than the average industry over the window. Absolute return is the industry's own compounded return.

Relative return, latest quarter. The same calculation over only the last quarter of the window: 63 trading days for 1 year, 32 for 6 months, 16 for 3 months, 5 for 1 month, 1 for 1 week. It shows whether the move is still going: an industry ahead over the window but negative in the latest quarter is fading; one behind but positive is turning up.

Charts. Rotation map: x = relative return over the window, y = relative return in its latest quarter; Hairy shows the path through the window. Hairy chart: each industry's relative return from the window start (0%) to today.